Document 39-21
Filed 01/05/2007
Page 1 of 49
Case 1:05-cv-01020-MMS
Document 39-21
Filed 01/05/2007
AND
Page 2 of 49 APP^DIX 1-2
y^-mM ^ /!-{na-e{
NAME
SSN
ASSOCIATES
INFORMATION SHEET ON EMPLOYEES
-t
,- ,
Last
^
,1
sex
.^
j
Born
Phone Fhone Phone
address,.
Subsequent Subsequent
V.ajor Job Category
Product
i'
Date Employed
Date Terminated Years
I--!--l--1
I__t
tntcrvenmg Activity
Status as of
Deceased:
Current
Location
2
Contacted
5
Indirect
I--1
D.C? 4
Yes
5
No
Date
Major Illness/Cause of Death
Other
Illness/Cause of Death
1--
Primary Cancer Site
Other Jobs within Plant
Category
Product
Months
NOTES:
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Case 1:05-cv-01020-MMS
Document 39-21
Filed 01/05/2007
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Case 1:05-cv-01020-MMS
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Case 1:05-cv-01020-MMS
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Case 1:05-cv-01020-MMS
Document 39-21
Filed 01/05/2007
Page 7 of 49
Case 1:05-cv-01020-MMS
Document 39-21
Filed 01/05/2007
Page 8 of 49
Health Status
In
o
Surviving Employees
addition to the
analyses of mortality, the health conditions
warranting medical attention were recorded for all employees, current and former, who could be contacted and who agreed Co supply the information.
Table VIII shows the types of problems reported by the employees
indicating a current medical condition or illness.
-Consistent with
earlier studies in the chemical indutry, a substantial majority of current and former employees
treatment.
reported
no medical conditions warranting
Of the 639 persons confirmed Co be alive, the current health
status of 616 was determined.
Good health was reported by 477 of these,
Of the 139 who have health prob-
representing 77.4% of Chose reporting.
lems, 23 reported
two conditions,and
15 persons reported 3 health prob-
lems,Jproducing the total of 192 conditions shown in Table VIII.
.The most commonly reported problem was hypertension.
Hypertension
and other cardiac disease were reported by just under 8% of the surviv-
ing employee -group, an incidence slightly less than observed in other
studies which averaged 10% of surviving employees reporting hypertension and cardiovascular disease.
Because of the interest in the possible relationship between work
:
environment and the occurrence of cancer,
time of contact who
the nine subjects alive at the
reported the presence of neoplastic disease were reSkin cancer was
viewed in detail: data collected are shown in Table IX.
reported by 3 persons: one each laborer, operator-raw material, and operator-resins.
Lung cancer
was
reported by 3 persons: one each laborer,
Breast cancer was reported
operator-resins, and maintenance employee.
by one office employee.
tenance
Cancer of the colon was reported by one main-
employee.
The ninth instance of neoplastic disease was reported
by
a
male laborer who had surgery in 1977 for cancer of unspecified site
Our review of the information contained in Tables VIII and IX revealed no pattern of disease or medical condition, by job or product ex-
posure, inconsistent with normal expectations in the general population.
-26-
Case 1:05-cv-01020-MMS
Document 39-21
Filed 01/05/2007
Page 9 of 49
Case 1:05-cv-01020-MMS
Document 39-21
Filed 01/05/2007
Page 10 of 49
to the national mortality, or among female employees whose deaths
are reviewed above.
The
generally consistent overall Marshall
mortality of- about 87% of that of the U.S. is probably more reflective of the life-style of the small town environment in
^which
the plant is located than of any other relevant factor.
25
Case 1:05-cv-01020-MMS
Document 39-21
Filed 01/05/2007
Page 11 of 49
Case 1:05-cv-01020-MMS
Document 39-21
Filed 01/05/2007
Page 12 of 49
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Case 1:05-cv-01020-MMS
Document 39-21
Filed 01/05/2007
Page 15 of 49
Case 1:05-cv-01020-MMS
Document 39-21
Filed 01/05/2007
Page 16 of 49
Table VI shows observed and expected deaths among white males
for major causes in five-year increments of employment.
The only
statistically significant differences shown are negative, i.e.,
the Velsicol deaths are significantly fewer than expected.
This
table confirms the general consistency between observed deaths
and the expected mortality irrespective of the length of exposure
at
Marshall.
At no point in the chronological progression is
there a statistically significant excess of deaths for any of
the causes of death potentially related to the occupational en-
vironment
(cancer,
heart disease, stroke, other &
unknown).
The
trauma deaths which
display a slight, though consistent, excess
throughout the employment spectrum consist of 2 industrial accidents (one at
Velsicol), 8 automobile accidental deaths, and 4
The deaths from other
suicides which occurred 5 years, 8 years, 24 years, and 25 years
after termination 'of Velsicol employment.
and unknown causes and from all causes range consistently below
expected values throughout the spectrum.
Table VII displays-..the progression of Standard 'Mortality
Ratios for the major causes of death among white males as length of
employment increases.
a minimum
The SMR for deaths from-all causes, after
employment of one year, reveals a significantly lower
It will be noted that SMR's for all causes
The
than expected death rate for Velsicol employees as compared to
the U.S. expectancy.
are
remarkably constant regardless of length of employment.
to decline for groups of
SMR's for heart disease tend
employed more than
hort.
ten years.
individuals
The
SMR's for
cancer show the de-
gree of variation one would expect for the size of the study coThe
SMU's for all other
causes indicate
Marshall death
rates consistently and substantially lower than the U.S.
expec-
tancy.
In summary, no relationship is discernible between the
Marshall occupational exposure and the mortality of Marshall
employees, either among male employees whose experience conforms
22
Case 1:05-cv-01020-MMS
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Case 1:05-cv-01020-MMS
Document 39-21
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Page 18 of 49
The occurrence of thr&e "other" deaths among the female em-
ployees is statistically significant. The total cohort of female employees numbered 84. Of these, 18 are classified as current
employees and only
a single former employee could not be traced
since her move to Colorado or Utah in the early
1970's.
The
number of former female employees confirmed alive as of 31 December 1979 was 61. The job assignments of the female cohort were
8 in production work (4 still currently employed), 1 in maintenance (a current employee), 7 in the laboratory (2 currently em-
ployed) and 68 in the
office
(11 currently employed),
The three female decedents were all former office employees.
Two of the decedents were sisters and died from multiple sclerosis which is categorized in accordance with the national statistics as
at
"Other" in
our Table IV.
The younger sister worked
until February
Velsicol/Marshall from August 1943 (age 17)
.-'
1951 (age 25) and died in 1955 at age 29.
The older sister was
employed at Marshall from August 1956 (age 26) until September
1964 (age 34) and died
in
1973
at
age 43-
The third-female in
Alzheimer's disease (hyaline deterioration of the blood vessels in the brain) in 1979 at the
the "Other" classification died of
age-of 62; she had worked for less than a year at Marshall 17 years earlier when she was 44 years old. The occurrence of two
"l
multiple sclerosis deaths in sisters who worked for periods of
7b
years and 8 years in the Marshall .plant office cannot be attributed to the occupational environment; no other Marshall emNor. can the other cen-
ployee has died from multiple sclerosis.
tral nervous system death, occurring 17 years after a few months
office employment, be related to the Marshall occupational environment
In an attempt
to determine whether there was
any relation-
ship between length of employment at Marshall and mortality from
all causes and from specific
causes.
Tables VI and VII were genThese show the relationship
erated for the white male employees.
between cause of death and varying lengths of Marshall employment,
21
Case 1:05-cv-01020-MMS
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Page 19 of 49
Case 1:05-cv-01020-MMS
Document 39-21
Filed 01/05/2007
Page 20 of 49
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Case 1:05-cv-01020-MMS
Document 39-21
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Page 23 of 49
Case 1:05-cv-01020-MMS
Document 39-21
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Page 24 of 49
Mortality by Job and Product
Table IV shows the overall mortality experience of all Marshall employees who worked at the plant for three months or more
since Velsicol began producing pesticides in that facility some
thirty-four years ago.
It also displays the mortality experience
with respect both to the kinds of exposure by job and product
and to specific causes of death.
The matrix of exposure cate-
gories and specific causes of death represents an attempt to be
as
specific as possible in distinguishing differences in poten-
tial exposures and types of illnesses given the constraint of
considering groups of sufficient size to' permit statistical validity*
The comparisons of observed deaths among'Marshall employees
with expected deaths based on U.S. rates for like segments of
"r
the general population reveal no significantly excessive differences with the sole exception of
"other" deaths among the relWith this single ex-
atively small group of female employees.
ception, the number of deaths observed for all causes and for
each specific cause among the various employee groups are consistent with the national norms.
T
Among the white male employees, the number of deaths, from
cancer, stroke, trauma, and other and unknown' causes all appear
to be somewhat lower than would be expected.
The heart disease
deaths are distributed among the various job/product: exposure
groups proportionately to the calculated expectations for each
sub-group.
No deaths were reported among the small number of
non-white male employees in the study cohort,
Table V shows the distribution of cancer deaths by
site,
As is seen, there is no concentration of type of cancer in any
job category.
18
Case 1:05-cv-01020-MMS
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Page 25 of 49
Case 1:05-cv-01020-MMS
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Summary of Findings
The data collected on the Marshall employees were analyzed
to determine whether their mortality experience differs from
that of the U.S. population at large.
Our comparisons of the observed mortality among/the Marshall
cohort to calculated expected values based on national statistics
revealed
a
significantly lesser occurrence of death overall than
would be expected in a group of similar size and age distribution.
When viewed in greater detail for various job and product
classifications and with respect to specific causes of death the
results are consistent with the national experience.
The only instance of a
statistically^significant
excess of
deaths occurred among the female employees where deaths in the
^
"Other" classification of disorders were* significantly more numerous than would be
at
expected.
This circumstance will be discussed
greater length below.
.-..
Similarly, the morbidity experience among current and surviving former employees is entirely unremarkable.
Although no
reliable national statistics are available on the health of the
^ U.S. population in general,
compared the results
we reviewed the occurrence of health
problems among the Marshall employees confirmed to be alive and
to similar findings of our prior studies
in the chemical industry.
Approximately 75% of the surviving
Marshall employees reported no health conditions requiring medical attention.
This
"good health" index
is substantially
higher than we have found in previous studies where the over-
all absence of health problems has averaged about 66^.
In summary, we discern
no
relationships attributable to
the Marshall occupational environment which would suggest any
deleterious effect upon the life expectancy or general health
of the Marshall employees.
are
The detailed results of our analyses
presented in the following sections.
17
Case 1:05-cv-01020-MMS
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Case 1:05-cv-01020-MMS
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The analysis includes 6,790.3 person-years of employment at
Velsicol and 16,881.6 person-years of survival since commencement of such
employment,
A second type of analysis was performed in which the actual
mortality experienced and the expected mortality in the compar-
able segment of the U.S, population as calculated above were used
to derive
Standard Mortality Ratio progressions for varying periods
The Standard Mor-
of minimum employment at the Marshall facility.
tality Ratio is the ratio of observed deaths
to the
calculated
expected deaths based on national age-, sex-, race- and causespecific death rates, i.e., Marshall observed deaths calculated expected deaths
The results of these two types of analyses are
in the following pages.
presented
16
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Case 1:05-cv-01020-MMS
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^m
Z E
0 E -po
where
^EP^
and
s
vp^(i-pp
This technique results in statistical significance for smaller variations than is the case if the distribution is assumed to
be Poisson and S
^/E.
Summarizing the above: we use the published mortality rates
for the U.S. population at large to calculate how many deaths
would be expected to occur for all causes -.and for each specific
cause among a group of individuals of the same numerical size,
Tace, sex and age composition as
the Marshall plant employee
group during the time period in which the Marshall cohort was
"at risk'* during and after Velsicol employment.
The comparison
of these' expected values to the observed deaths among the Marshall cohort provides a determination of whether working at the
Marshall plant is likely to be accompanied by a mortality experience that is similar to that of people of comparable ages not
working
at
the Marshall plant.
By eliminating periods of adult activity of Marshall workers
prior to Velsicol employment from the time at risk calculations,
we reduce
the overall person-years base on which the expected
deaths are calculated, and thus reduce the number of expected
deaths to which we compare the number of actually observed deaths
While it_can be argued that it is likely that Velsicol employees
hired after employment elsewhere should be considered at risk
during their entire working lives for purposes of establishing
the overall person-years base for calculating expected deaths, we
deem it more conservative Co consider only the time after the re-
quired minimum exposure
to the occupational environment whose
effects we are attempting to evaluate.
Case 1:05-cv-01020-MMS
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Case 1:05-cv-01020-MMS
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The second constraint concerns the rates that were used in
calculating expected mortality.
Race- and sex-specific U.S.
mortality rates for the years 1945, 1950, 1955, 1960, 1965, 1970
and 1975 were employed. The rates for 1945 were applied in cal-
culations for the period January 1946
June 1947; rates for 1950
.for July 1947
June 1952; and similarly for each five-year period,
December 1979 (the
using 1975 rates for the period July 1972
most recent detailed rates available).
Rates for 1960 and later are published by the National Center
for Health Statistics for five-year age groups.
In order to make
data for 1945, 1950 and 1955 comparable, logarithmic interpolations between published rates for ten-year age groups were derived
to obtain estimates for the intervening five-year intervals.
Thus
in calculating expected mortality, five-year age groups and five-
^
*
year time periods were used for comparison purposes.
The causes of death considered in the analyses were classi-
fied according to the Eighth Revision of the International Classification of Diseases, Adapted.
The categories of interest were
deaths from:
all causes (all
ICDA), malignant neoplasms (ICDA
140-209)>
eases
diseases of the heart and circulatory system except
cerebrovascular (ICDA 390-429 & 440-458), cerebrovascular dis-
(ICDA 430-438), and all trauma (accidents, suicide., homICDA
icide, etc.
E800-E999).
For those cases in which death
certificates were not obtainable, the cause of death was tabul-
ated as "Other or unknown", unless the source of the information
was able to furnish a reliably classifiable cause.
Statistical significance was determined by comparing the
observed number of deaths with that expected, and assuming that
the distribution of the difference is Gaussian.
This is expressed
by the following formula:
l/.
Case 1:05-cv-01020-MMS
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Case 1:05-cv-01020-MMS
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Analytic Technique
In order to analyze the mortality experience of the Marshall
employees, it is necessary
to compare
the observed mortality in
the employee groups with that of the comparable segments of the
United States population over the same period of time.
To perform
these comparisons, the probability of each employee dying from the
specific causes during the period of the study was calculated us-
ing the following formula:
p.
1
(1-p J^d-p
^2
(l-p,
)6^
the probability of each individual employee dying over the total period of the study, where
the probability of dying in the individual years of the s tudy, a nd the portion of a year in which the individual is represented in the study ("e" may be 0. 1, or a fraction of a yr.)
p., p,,.....p,
e
e ,'.....e,
When calculating expected mortality, two important constraints
are imposed.
First, the period for calculation of risk of dying
for each individual is precisely defined.
Because the conditions
for inclusion in the study included a minimum period of employment, the calculation of expected mortality began at the conclusion of the period of minimum employment rather than on the date on which
employment began.
-end of the study.
The counting of time at risk terminates at the
However, where a person's status as of 31 Dec-
ember 1979 was not determined, cime was counted only to the point of last known dace alive rather than the cut-off date of the study.
11
Case 1:05-cv-01020-MMS
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Case 1:05-cv-01020-MMS
Document 39-21
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Case 1:05-cv-01020-MMS
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Page 37 of 49
Case 1:05-cv-01020-MMS
Document 39-21
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Case 1:05-cv-01020-MMS
Document 39-21
Filed 01/05/2007
Page 41 of 49
Case 1:05-cv-01020-MMS
Document 39-21
Filed 01/05/2007
Page 42 of 49
who was employed for 11 months in 1978-79.
Table II displays the information available on the entire group of 20 former employees whose status could not be determined during the update study.
Of the 716 health status investigations which comprised the
original study, all but the 92 individuals for whom death certificates were obtained at that time required complete reinvesti-
gation for the current study.
retracing
Thus, the present study involved
and/or additional data collection for 697 individuals
The death certi-
as compared to 716 in the 1976 investigation.
ficates on file from the original study were reviewed and class-
ifications by specific causes confirmed,. Efforts to obtain death
certificates for all individuals reported to be deceased were not
successful in five cases, two of which were not obtained during
ft
the 1976 study.
on
Table III summarizes the information available
Chose reported to be deceased but for whom no death certifiwere obtained.
'cates
Case 1:05-cv-01020-MMS
Document 39-21
Filed 01/05/2007
Page 43 of 49
Case 1:05-cv-01020-MMS
Document 39-21
Filed 01/05/2007
Page 44 of 49
current and former employees.
This total included six individuals
who had been identified by only a name at the time of the original
study.
Review of Velsicol records during the current investiga-
tion failed to disclose any additional information regarding
sex,
race, dates of birth, hire or termination, nor any social security
numbers.
Being unable to obtain valid data for analysis or iden-
tification for review by the Social Security Administration, and
being unable to confirm reliably their basic qualification for
inclusion in the study, these six were deleted from the current
update cohort.
This action reduced the total number of original
cohort members to 710 by eliminating five of the 51 who were not contacted in 1976 and one of the 3 reported decedents whose deaths were not confirmed by acquisition of an actual death
certificate.
-^
Of the remaining 46 originally qualified individuals whose
A
status was not determined
during the original study, we succeeded
Only 15 of
in ascertaining the status of 31 during the current study by di-'
rect or indirect contact or confirmation of death.-
the 46 with undetermined status 'in 1976 remained in that category
at the conclusion
of the current update study.
Of the 393 individuals classified in the initial study cohort
*
as
former employees, confirmed alive, all but four were success-
fully contacted or otherwise confirmed to be deceased or still
alive during the current update study.
was not confirmed during the current
These four, whose status
two white male
study, were
office employees (one of whom worked for 15 months in
1971-72,
the other for 39 months in 1964-67) who were contacted directly
in
1976, and
two white male engineering
employees (one employed
for
lib years
in 1957-68 and the other for 6 months in
1967-68)
who were confirmed alive with unknown health status in 1976.
The update study added 73 qualified individuals to the
original study cohort.
The status of all but one of these was
determined.
This individual was a black male production worker
Case 1:05-cv-01020-MMS
Document 39-21
Filed 01/05/2007
Page 45 of 49
Case 1:05-cv-01020-MMS
Document 39-21
Filed 01/05/2007
Page 46 of 49
The Study'Universe
The Marshall plant cohort of employees who completed three
months or more employment during the study period of 1 January
1946 through 31 December 1979 totaled 783 individuals.
The group
is comprised of 689 white males, 10 non-white males and 84 females,
Of the 783 in all classifications, 167 were persons employed
as of 31 December 1979 and 616 were former employees of whom were determined to have died before 1
not known to be
124
January 1980.
Of the 492
deceased, 472
were contacted either directly or
indirectly and confirmed to be alive as of 31 December 1979.
An
individual is classified as a direct contact whenever a) one of
our staff actually spoke with him or her by telephone, confirmed
all the data on the data sheet and received an answer concerning
his or her current health status, or
b) a mailed questionnaire
^
affirming the above information was completed, signed and returned
by the employee.
An indirect contact is a) one in which the de-
sired information was obtained from a family member or close as-
sociate, b) in which current status, as alive was confirmed by a
personally signed receipt for a certified letter sent
dress reported by a reliable source to be the
r
to an
ad-
employee's
current
address, or c) by SSA report.
Only 20 persons could not be con-
firmed alive or dead and are classified as status unknown.
Table I shows the white males (grouped according to primary
job/product category), the non-white males and the females classified according to status:
current
(1),
former contacted (2 &
status unknown
3), former.deceased (4 & 5), and former with
shown.
(9).
The degree of follow-up achieved for each sub-group is also
Overall, 97.4X of the study cohort could be accounted
for as of 31 December 1979.
The original Marshall plant study covering the period from
1 January 1946 through 30 June 1976 identified a total of 716
Case 1:05-cv-01020-MMS
Document 39-21
Filed 01/05/2007
Page 47 of 49
Case 1:05-cv-01020-MMS
Document 39-21
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Page 48 of 49
To maintain a conservative approach in our classification of
survival status we sought corroborative evidence of death for SSA
reported decedents and did not classify them as deceased in the
absence of supporting information from other sources
(e.g.,
one
former employee, B. Smith, SS// 313 66
0534,
is known to have been
alive in 1980, more than six years subsequent to his SSA reported
death in September 1973).
We submitted a total of 116 identifi-
cations to SSA for review and received reports covering 112 of
the individuals, identifying 9 as
deceased, 27
as alive during
the first three months of 1980, and 76 in unknown status.
Our
investigations confirmed 8 of the deaths and refuted the 9th,
confirmed by direct or indirect contact 13 of the 27 reported
in surviving status, and accomplished 55 direct or indirect con-
tacts among the 76 SSA
"unknowns."
We did not discover any
actual deaths not known to the Social Security Administration
among the identifications submitted for review.
y
Although SSA
cooperation has been helpful in increasing our success in obtaining death certificates and as-certaining survivor status,
the reports did not permit resolution of the status of all the
individuals included in the cohort.
6
Case 1:05-cv-01020-MMS
Document 39-21
Filed 01/05/2007
Page 49 of 49
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