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Case 1:98-cv-00474-JFM

Document 309-9

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Application

License

Increasing

the

reliability of performance assessment

models
models , analysts can assess how well their models represent the natural processes and of a repository. Valiengineered features dating the performance assessment models will reduce uncertainties and increase con-

While forecasts over thousands

of of

repository performance
years can ne ver

be

proven, laboratory and fi~ld studies and experiments provide opportunities to validate

the performance assessment models. By
comparing the empirical results of

the ex-

fidence that a repository will work as expected.

periments with the predicted results of the

Seepage
into drift

90

. Pr8dpltatlon
(c:Urnat.) .net

InftItratJon

percolaUon (1It8tunIted rone flow)

Schematic cross-section of Yucca Mountain and depiction of processes that are important to repository performanoo

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Estimated Cost

. Cost of licensing, building, operating, monitoring, and closing a repositorY
Tho estimated cost to complete the reposi-

full-scale rate of approximately 3, 000
metric tons per year.
. A total

tory design and other necessary work and to prepare and submit a license application
in 2002 is approximately $1.1 billion, in con:
stant 1998 dollars. This includes the costs

of 70 000 metric tons of waste is emplaced , including 63, 000 metric tons

of completing an environmental impact
statement in 2000, and providing the information needed by the States, the Secretary, the President, the Congress , and the public.

of commercial spent nuclear fuel,
333 metric tons of defense spent

nuclear fuel. and 4 667 equivalent metric tons of high-level radioactive waste.
. The

The estimated cost to complete the license ing process and construct , operate, monitor, . and close a repository is approximately

repository remains open for 100 years after the start of operations. Closing and sealing the repository begin in 2110 and are complete d in 2116.

$18. 7 billion , inconstant 1998 dollars. This cost estimate is based on the following as-

The DOE is evaluating options for constructing and operating the repository that

sumptions:
. A

would reduce construction costs before emplacement begins in 2010.

license application is submitted in

The surface fa-

2002 , and the Nuclear Regulatory Com-

mission approves construction of the reposit.ory in 2005.
. Emplacement of

cilities and tunnels could be constructed in phases. or modules. This modular approach could reduce . annual costs but also could increase the total cost of constructing and
operating the repositOry. rfhese
options will

waste in the repository

begins in 2010 and ends in 2033.
. After a five-

year start-up phase , commercial spent nuclear fu el is emplaced at a

be evaluated in conjunction with the stu~y of alternative designs described in the preceding section.

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Estimated Cost

Repository costs
The $18. 7 billion estimated repository cost
reflects several factors. The repository sub000 metric tons per year. Performance confirmation and monitoring would continue for 100 years before closing and

fuel-

surface facilities would consist of approximately 100 miles of steel- or concrete- lined
tunnels, and underground operations would involve remotely operated equipment. The

sealing the repository.

waste packages would be made of high
grade materials and manufactured under strict quality controls and standards. 1.'

Because research is ongoing and the repository design has not yet been selected , there
is uncertainty in the cost estimate. To compensate for the uncertainty, contingencies

surface facilities would be designed to
handle a high volume of commercial spent

have: been incorporated into

the cost esti-

mates.

Performance Confirmation

Regulatory. Infrastructure and Management Support

$2.
Waste

$2.
Subsurface
Facilities

Packages $4.

$5.

$5.
Surface Facilities
Alocation of costs to construct , operate, monitor. and close a geologic repository at Yucca Mountain

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Estimated

Cost

Total system life cycle costs
A monitof(!d geologic repository is only one component of it. total waste management

then bujId , operate , monitor , close , and
seal the repository are $18.

. billion.

system , which would also include overall

system management, transportation, and benefits to the State of Nevada. The total life cycle costs for a complete waste management system include the following ele-

. The estimated costs

of expanding the re-

pository to

accommodate additional

waste beyond the current 70, 000 metricton statutory limit, if authorized, would

ments:
. Total

be approximately $4. 5 billion.
program costs from 1983 through
. The estimated

costs of transporting

1998 were approximately $5. 9 billion in year-of-expenditure dollars. Site characterization activities at all nine of the initial candidate sites and the five-mile ex-

wastes to Yucca Mountain are approxi-

mately $6.

7 billion.

. Estimated payments e((uivalent to taxes
8:nd other benefits to the

account for the larg~st portion of the costs

to date.
$1. 200

ploratory tunnel at Yucca Mountain

State of Nevada

and affected units oflocal government are approximately $3. 2 billion.
. The estimated costs

. 'I' he e~timated costs to complete a license
application and supporting documents is $1.1 . billion, in constant 1998 dollars.
. The estimated

of managing the enbillion.

tire sy!?tem are $2. 5

costs to complete the repository design and licensing process , and

The total of estimated future costs is $36. billion , in constant 1998 dollars. (The additive total of the elements above differs due
to rounding.

000
. Total Hstorical Costs (Year-of- EJcpendlture

$800

Dolars)
lit Total Estimated Future Costs (Constant 1998 Dollars)

(/I

Ucense Application Costs (1998 Dollars)

$400 $200

8RepositOfy Costs (1998 DoI(3rs)

Fisqal Year
Profile of lotal system life cycle costs. These cost estimates reflect DOE' s best projections, given the scope of the work identified and planned
schedule of required activities. Future events and information could result in changes to both costs and schedules. Future budget requests for

the program have yet 10 be established and will be determined through the annual executive and congressional budget process.

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Estimatell Cost

Who

pays?
funding-free from normal budgetary pressures-required for such a long-term effort.

The Nucl(!ar Waste Policy Act of 1982 requires entities that generate spent nuclear fuel and high- level radioactive waste to pay for the costs of disposal. The utilities with
. nuclear

power plants pay a fee to fund the

The Nuclear Waste Fund is intended to cover the entire cost of disposing of com-

disposal of wastes from their plants, while the Federal Government uses tax revenues . to pay for the disposal of radioactive waste from the nation s. defense programs.
he Act directs the Secretary of Energy to
enter into fee- for-service

mercial spent nuclear fuel. The Secretary
of Energy regularly reviews the Fund and projected costs of the program to lletermine whether the fees will be enough to recover

the full costs. If the fees are too high or too low, the Secretary is authorized to propose

contracts with

any required changes. .
The DOE has determined that the amount

utilities for disposing of the waste. In re-

turn for this service, utilities pay annual
fees that are deposited into a Nuclear Waste
Fund where the money earns interest until

generated by the current fees, including the

spent. In setting up the Fund, Congress

unspent balance and accumulating interest, is sufficient to cover the total system
life cycle costs of disposing of commercial

recognized that the disl)Qsal program is an extremely complex , first-of-a.kind scientific
and engineering project and one that can
succeed only through a

spent nuclear fuel. This ~ssumes that the
unspent balance and interest income from

sustained effort over

to provide the adequate , assured , and stable

many decades. Thus, the Fund is designed

the Nuclear Waste Fund wilhemain available for their originally intended purpose.

000
Year-of-EJqJeoditure Dollars (listorica~

500
1/1

Ci-.1fian Contributions

8 2, 000
!II

:: 1, 500

. i!
8 1, 000
1/1

500

(500) .

Fiscal Year
These cost estimates reflect DOE' s best projections,

Historicat and projected program income and costs through the waste emplacement phase.

given the scope of the work identified and planned schedule of required activities. Future events and information could result in changes to

both costs and schedules. Future budget requests for the program have yet to be established and will be detennined through the annual executive and oongressiooal budget process.

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Conclusion

-----Document 309-9 Filed 04/16/2004 Page 6 of 15

Concluding observations
Based on the viability assessment, DOE believes that Yucca Mountain
remains a promising site for a geologic repository and that work should proceed to support a decision in 2001 on whether to recommend the site
. to the President for

development as a repository. . Over 16 years, exten-

sive research has validated many of the expectations of the scientists who first suggested that remote, desert regions of the Southwest are
Engineered barrier~ can be dosigned to contain waste for thousands of years, and the natural barriers can delay and dilute any radioactive material that mjgrates from tho waste packages. Current models indicate that the possible radiation .exposure to future populations living nearby could be comparable to present-day exposure levels from natural backfiround radiation. Design alternatives that may improve performance and reduce remaining uncertainties ar~
well-suited for a geologic repository.

now being evaluated.

The performance of a geologic repository over such long time periodslonger than recorded human history~annot be proven beyond all doubt.
Forecasts about future geologic and climatic cond~tions and engineering

estimates of how long the waste packages will re.-nain intact cannot be directly validated. The mathematical models us~d in the performance assessment are subject to uncertainties that can be reduced but never
completely eliminated.
The Nuclear Regulatory Commission s general standard for meeting gooand objectives is reasonable assuruncertainties remain today, DOE believes that I ance. While considerable

. logic repository regulatory criteria

I reasonable assurance should be achievable in the licensing process after
the planned work is completed. The DOE believe~, therefore, that ongo-

ing work at Yucca Mountain should proceed as planned.

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Endnotes

Endnotes
The numbers at the end of each reference are Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management accession numbers. See the inside front
cover of this document for whom to contact regarding more information.

8 Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982. Public Law 97- 425. 222165. .
9 10 CFR (Code of Federal R(!gulationsJ 60.

Energy: Disposal of High-Level Radioactive
Waste in Geologic RepositOJ'ies. 239474.
10

1 Energy and Water Development Appropriations Act, 1997. Public Law 104- 206. 238115.
2 For a dcscl'iption and discussion of radioac-

Nuclear Waste Policy Amendments Act of 1987, Public Law 100- 203- 223717.
Radioactive Wastes in Geologic Repositories,

tive waste and its management , see The
I..ea.gue of Women Voters
1993.

1\ 10 CFR 60 . Bnergy: Disposal of High- Level

The Nuclear.

Waste Primer: AHandbook for Citizens.

New

239474.
12 Energy

York: League of Women Voters Education
Jt' und.

210697.

P()licy Act of 1992, Public Law 102486. 233191.

. for Entry

:\ U. R District Court, Utah 1995. Joint Motion of Consent Order Based on Settle-

13

eement and Consent Order in the (',0. of Colorado v. Batt Case of Public Service
ment. Agl'

Technical National Research Council 1995. WashBases for Yucca Mountain Standards. ington, D. : National Academy Press.
104723.

October 17, 1995. Civil Case No. 91- 0054-S- . ..iJL (Legal Pleadings). U. S. District Court for the District of Idaho. 240346.
~ U. S.

14

Interagency Review Group on Nuclear Waste
Management 1979.

Report to the President by

Linking Legacies: Connecting the Cold War Nuclear Productioll Processes to Their Environmental
Department of Energy 1997. Consequences.

the Interagency Review Group on Nuclear TID- 29442 , p. 37. WashWaste Management. ington; D. : DOE. MOL. 19980625. 0169.
15

DOEIEM- O319 , pp. 34- 38.

Washington , D. : DOE. 241255.
I; National Academy of Sciences/National The Disposal of Research CouncHl957. Publication 519 Radioactive Waste on Land. p. 4. Washington, D. : National Academy
Press. 241256.

Letter from Dr. Vincent McKelvey to Richard
W. Roberts ,

Assistant Administrator for Nuclear Energy, U. S. Energy Research and Development Administration, Washington C. July 9, 1976. 238792.
16 Winograd , I.J. 1981. "Radioactive Waste

G U. S.

Department of Energy 1980.

Final

Environ-mental Impact Stateme'~t, Managemen t of Commercially Generated Radiooctive
Waste.

Disposal in Thick Unsaturated Zones. Science 212, pp. 1457- 1464. Washington : American Association for the Advance. ment of Science. 217258.
17 National

))OI':/Ji~IS. 0046F. Washington, D.

DOE. 205022.
" National Research Council 1990.

Rethinking

Rethinking Research Council 1990. High. Level Radioactive Disposal, A Position Statement of the Board on Radioactive Waste
Management,

High- Level Radioactive Waste Disposal, A Position Statement of the Board on Radioactive Waste Management p. vii. Washington : National Academy Press. 241259.

pp. &-6. Washington, D.

National Academy Press. 241260.
16 DOE 1992-

Science, Society, and America~ Teacher Guide. DOEI RW-O361 TG. Washington , D. : DOE. 214909.
Nuclear Waste, Unit

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Endnotes

19 League

of Women Voters " 1993.

The Nuclear
p. 12.

Waste Primer: A Handbook for Citizens,

New York: League of Women Voters Education Fund. 210697.
20 National
Research Council 1995.

Technical
12.

Bases for Yucca Mou'llain Standards,

Washington , D. 104273.

: National Academy Press.

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Glossary

Glossary
Adsorb

To transfer dissolved maieria1s , including radionuclides, in groundwater to the : solid geologic surfaces with which they come in contact.
Radiation arising from natural radioactive material always present in the environment., including solar and cosmic radiation, and radiation from radon gas, soil and rocks , and the human body.

Background radiation

Cladding

The metallic outer sheath of a nuclear reactor fuel element, generally made of a
zirconium alloy. It is intended to isolate the fuel element from the external

environment.
Colloid

Small particles in the size range of 10.9

to 10-6

meters that aro suspended in a

solvent. Naturally occurring colloids in groundwater arise from clay minerals.

Defense in

depth
Design margin

A strategy based on a system of multiple , in$1ependent., and redundant barriers, designed to ensure that failure in anyone barrier does not result in failure the entire system.
Margin of safety in specifications for engineered components to account for uncertainty in the conditions to which the componenLq will be subjected and for variability in the properties of component materials.

Dose

A quantity of radiation or energy absorbed by any material; measured in rads. Equivalent dose measures the amount of damage to human tissues from a radiation dose; equivalent dose is measured in rems.
From mining terminology, a horizontal underground passage.
A movable crane carried on a. four- Iegged portal frame that runs along rails.

Drift

Gantry
High-level radioactive waste

Highly radioactive material resulting from the reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel. Originally produced in liquid form, high- level radioactive waste must be solidified before disposal.
(1) The low point of something such as a tunnel , drift , or drainage channel. (2) An engineered structure or material placed on excavated drift floors (the low

Invert

points) to serve as structural support for drift transportation or emplacement systems.
Isotope
One of two or more atomic nuclei with the same number of protons (i. , the

same atomic number) but with a different number of neutrons (i.e., a different atomic weight). For example, uranium. 235 and uranium- 238 are both isotopes
of uranium.
Metric ton

A metric ton is metric ton of heavy metal. In this document., metric ton means a a u~it of mass equal to 1 000 kg (about 2, 205 Ib). HeaVy metals are those with atomic masses greater than 230. Examples include thorium , uranium , plutonium , and neptunium.

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Glossary

Millirem

A millirem is one one-thousandth of a rem, which is the unit of equivalent dose. Equivalent dose is a measure of the effect that radiation has on humans. The of radiation and the absorbed dose. type equivalent dose takes into account the Rem is an initialism for Roentgen equivalent man.

Natural analog

Natural geologic systems that parallel situations

that can develop. in

man-made

systems. An example of a natural analog is the natural nuclear reactor at the

Oklo uranium deposit in Gabon, Mrica, which can be used as a source of analog data for conceptual models of nuclear criticality.
Non.wt'lded . tuff
See

Tuff.

Percolate
PerfOl mance

Referring to the movement of water downward through soil and rock.

An analysis that predicts the behavior of a system or system component under
assessments ffil1 include estimates of the effects of uncertainties in both data
a given set of constant and/or transient conditions. Repository performance

assessment

and modeling.
A radioactive isotope.
The region belo~ the water table where rock pores

Radioactivc waste
RadionucJide
Saturated zone

For the purpose of this document, spent nuclear fuel or high- level radioactive waste.

and fractures are completely

saturated ffith groundwater
Spent nuclear

Fuel that has been withdrawn from a nuclear reactor following irradiation , the
constituent elements of

fuel

which have not been separated by reprocessing.

Transurani(:
. waste

Waste contaminated with uranium- 233 or with radionuclides having atomic
numbers greater than that of uranium.
Rock derived from volcanic ash. Welded

Tuff

tuf/results when the volcanic ash is hot

enough to melt together and .is further compressed by the weight of overlying results when volcanic ash cools in the air suffiNon-welded tuff materials. ciently that it doesn t melt together, yet later becomes rock through compression.

Unsaturated
zone

The zone

of

soil and rock between the land surface and the water table.

Water table
Welded tuff

The upper limit. of the portion of the ground wholly saturated with water.
See

Tuff.

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Acronyms

Acronyms
))OE
J.;PA
D(' pal'tment of EncrA"Y

I':nvir-onmenlal Prot(!ction Agency

NAS
NHC

Nat ional Academy of Sciences
Nudear Hegulalory Commission

NWPA Nudcal' Wa::;t,c Policy Ad of 1982

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The following number is for Office of-Civilian Radioactive Waste Management Records . Managemenl purposes only and should not be used when ordering this publication. . Accession No. MOL. t998tOO7.0027

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..--..-.___._nViability A~sessment

noon.. ...- ..m',

of a Repository at Yucca Mountain

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